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MelanoRisk: Educational Guide

A comprehensive guide to understanding the Capacity-Constrained Triage Model, the cost parameters, and how to use the simulation tools.

1. The Core Concept: Triage under Constraints

In real-world healthcare, resources are finite. We cannot biopsy everyone. This simulation models a scenario where we have a fixed capacity (K) of biopsy slots per day.

The Challenge

We have N patients, but only K slots. Who gets chosen?

The Solution

We calculate the "Benefit of Referral" for each patient and pick the top K.

The Financial Risk of Missing Cancer

If we send a sick patient home, the cancer might progress to a later stage. This leads to significantly higher treatment costs (immunotherapy, surgery, hospitalization). We model this as Cost of False Negative ($).

The Cost of Testing

Each biopsy consumes lab resources, pathology kits, and staff time. We assign a monetary value to this: Cost of False Positive ($).

2. Scenario Generator

The dashboard includes a Scenario Generator tool in the sidebar. This allows you to simulate large-scale populations instantly.

How to use it

  1. Locate the "Scenario Generator" card in the left sidebar.
  2. Enter the number of patients you want to simulate (e.g., 50, 100).
  3. Click the Set & Reset button.
  4. The system will generate random patients with varying ages (20-90) and probabilities (0.0-1.0).

3. Cost Sensitivity (Accordion Controls)

We've implemented an Accordion-style control panel for "Global Parameters" to allow for granular ("kalem kalem") adjustments without cluttering the interface. All costs are in USD ($).

Cost of False Negative (CFN)

Opened via the accordion, this section controls the "penalty" for missing a cancer case.

  • Base Medical Cost ($):The estimated future treatment cost (e.g., $10,000) if the cancer is missed today and diagnosed later at a more advanced stage.
  • Age Sensitivity Factor ($):This adds a "Social Cost" value.
    Formula: Added Cost = Factor × (80 - Age)
    We monetize "years of life lost". A younger patient has more potential economic contribution and life years, so missing their cancer is modeled as "more expensive" to society.

Cost of False Positive (CFP)

Controls the "penalty" for unnecessary biopsies.

  • Procedure Cost ($):The direct invoice cost of the biopsy procedure, including the pathology kit, lab technician time, and overhead.

4. The Mathematical Model (Recap)

Benefit = (p × CFN) - ((1 - p) × CFP)

The model calculates this value for every patient, sorts the entire list, and draws a line after the K-th patient.