MelanoRisk

Interactive White-Box Decision Simulator

Educational Guide
Model 1: Capacity-Constrained

Global Parameters

Max biopsies per day.

Impact: (80 - Age) × Value

Impact: (80 - Age) × Value

Scenario Generator

Generates random patients (N=5).

How it works

Patients are ranked by Referral Benefit. The top 3 patients are selected for biopsy.

Decision Logic

Benefit Formula
Benefit = (p × CFN) - ((1-p) × CFP)
We refer if the Expected Cost of Missing ($) > Expected Cost of False Alarm ($).
Dynamic Costs (Age Integrated)
CFN includes Life-Years Lost
CFP includes Aesthetic/Scar Impact
Both costs now vary by age. Young patients have higher "Life Lost" risks AND higher "Scarring" anxiety.

Patient Queue & Simulation

Sorted by Benefit (Desc)
RankPatientAgeProb (p)CFN ($)CFP ($)Risk (Miss)Risk (FP)BenefitDecision
#1
P-001
High Risk Young
15500475131757113104
Biopsy
#2
P-002
High Risk Elderly
110002509350389313
Biopsy
#3
P-003
Moderate Risk
1400040063002206080
Biopsy
#4
P-005
Borderline Case
1250032550001954805Dismiss
#5
P-004
Low Risk
1500045015004051095Dismiss

What does this mean?

This value represents the total "Benefit" collected from the patients we chose to biopsy.

It sums up the difference between the Cost of Missing Cancer and the Cost of the Biopsy for every referred patient.

A higher number means we are effectively catching high-risk/high-cost cases while minimizing waste.
Total Expected Risk Reduction
$28496.25 saved
High Risk Patients Missed
0 patients

Prob > 0.50 but not in top 3